Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 September 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Sep 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 17 SEP 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW AS THE VISIBLE DISK
REMAINED SPOTLESS FOR A FIFTH CONSECUTIVE DAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS, WITH A SINGLE INTERVAL OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
RECORDED AT 17/0000-0300Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS
CONTINUE AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 18 SEP to 20 SEP
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 SEP 069 Predicted 18 SEP-20 SEP 068/069/070 90 Day Mean 17 SEP 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 SEP 018/019 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 SEP 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 SEP-20 SEP 015/015-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 SEP to 20 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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