Solar activity has been high. Region 696 (N08W22) produced numerous C-class flares, and at 1606 UTC a long duration X2.0 flare, accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (673 km/s), a Type IV radio sweep, and a 4600 sfu Tenflare. A CME may have occurred in association with this flare, although LASCO imagery was not available. Region 696 decayed significantly to an area of 650 millionths in white light. The region maintains its complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered today.

Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Although it has decayed in size, Region 696 is expected to produce M-class and isolated X-class flares.

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels. A shock arrived at ACE at 1555 UTC which caused subsequent major storming in Earth's magnetic field beginning at 1608 UTC. Another shock passage was observed at ACE at 1755 UTC that resulted in a 41nT sudden impulse at 1831 UTC followed by minor storming. These shock passages are most likely from the CMEs associated with flare activity on 3 and 4 November. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux crossed 10 pfu at 1910 UTC and ended the period at 72 pfu. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux was elevated but did not cross the 1 pfu threshold. Energetic proton activity was most likely associated with the X2 flare.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels. A shock passage from the CME associated with the M2/M5 flares from 5 November is expected to arrive early on 8 November, and a shock passage from the CME associated with the M9 flare from 6 November is expected to arrive on 9 November. Today's X2 flare very likely produced a CME that could arrive late on 9 November. These anticipated shock passages, along with the elevation in solar wind speed due to a geoeffective coronal hole, should keep geomagnetic activity at unsettled to minor storm levels all three days, with isolated major storming possible on 8-9 November. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at GOES is expected to stay above the 10 pfu threshold through 8 November, and will likely cross the 100 pfu threshold early on 8 November.

  Beobachtet       07 Nov 130
  Vorhergesagt   08 Nov-10 Nov  125/125/120
  90 Tage Mittel        07 Nov 110

  Beobachtet Afr/Ap 06 Nov  004/003
  Geschätzt     Afr/Ap 07 Nov  022/025
  Vorhergesagt    Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  020/030-025/030-025/040