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Sonnenaktivitätsbericht
Für jede Sonneneruption in diesem Bericht wird ein Skalierungsfaktor vom Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) angewendet. Aufgrund dieses SWPC-Skalierungsfaktors werden Sonneneruptionen um 42 % kleiner gemeldet als die Daten für wissenschaftliche Zwecke. Der Skalierungsfaktor wurde aus unseren archivierten Sonneneruptionsdaten entfernt, um die tatsächlichen physikalischen Einheiten widerzuspiegeln.
Bericht der solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität 2003 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Erstellt von NOAA © SWPC und verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive.comGemeinsamer Bericht der USAF und NOAA zur solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität
SDF Nummer 170 ausgestellt am 19 Jun 2003 um 2200 Uhr UTC
IA. Analyse der aktiven Sonnenflecken-Gruppen und der Aktivität vom 18-2100Z Uhr bis 19-2100Z Uhr
Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Flare
activity was limited to several B-class flares. Region 386 (S07E30)
lost penumbral coverage over the period although it does retain a
delta magnetic structure in the dominant lead spot. Region 387
(N18E49) grew in both penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity
since yesterday, a gamma structure is now evident in the trailing
portion of the spot group. Newly numbered Region 388 (S03E08)
produced a minor B-class flare early in the period.
IB. Sonnenaktivitäts-Prognose
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 386 remains capable of producing an
isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysikalische Aktivität vom 18-2100Z Uhr bis 19-2100Z Uhr
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active levels today.
Minor storm conditions were observed at both middle and high
latitudes between 19/0000 and 0300Z due to the influence of a
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux exceeded event threshold at 18/2050Z (reached a max of
24 pfu at 19/0450Z), ended at 19/1900Z and after careful review the
event is believed to have been the result of the M6.8 x-ray flare
from June 17. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate
levels today.
IIB. Geophysikalische Aktivitätsprognose
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through
the interval. Minor storm conditions may exist due to a transient
passage during the first half of day one in response to the M6.8
x-ray flare from June 17.
III. Ereignis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 20 Jun bis 22 Jun
Klasse M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Klasse X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Protonensturm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Beobachtet 19 Jun 123
Vorhergesagt 20 Jun-22 Jun 125/125/125
90 Tage Mittel 19 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetischer Ap Index
Beobachtet Afr/Ap 18 Jun 036/054
Geschätzt Afr/Ap 19 Jun 023/025
Vorhergesagt Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 020/025-020/025-012/020
VI. Geomagnetische Aktivität - Wahrscheinlichkeiten 20 Jun bis 22 Jun
A. Mittlere Breiten |
Aktiv | 40% | 40% | 25% |
Geringer Sturm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
B. Hohe Breiten |
Aktiv | 50% | 50% | 40% |
Geringer Sturm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
PLAIN
GOES Protons:
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
K-Indices:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
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