SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 9154 (S18W21) REMAINED MODERATE IN SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND PRODUCED OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. REGION 9149 (N13W49) ALSO REMAINED MODERATE IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY, BUT PRODUCED NO FLARES. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE SIMPLE AND STABLE. NEW REGIONS 9156 (S27E49) AND 9157 (N21E63) WERE NUMBERED.

LOW TO MODERATE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. REGIONS 9154 AND 9149 COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS UNTIL ABOUT 06/1700 UTC. ACE REAL TIME SOLAR WIND MEASUREMENTS INDICATED AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK PASSAGE AT L1 AT ABOUT 06/1614 UTC FOLLOWED BY A SUDDEN IMPULSE AT 06/1704 UTC (16 NT, AS MEASURED BY THE BOULDER USGS MAGNETOMETER). FIELD ACTIVITY INCREASED TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOLLOWING THE IMPULSE. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE/PARTIAL-HALO CME OBSERVED ON 4 SEPTEMBER. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT MAY REACH MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE CME-RELATED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES. FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES.

  Beobachtet       06 SEP 179
  Vorhergesagt   07 SEP-09 SEP  185/190/190
  90 Tage Mittel        06 SEP 181

OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 SEP  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 SEP  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 SEP-09 SEP  030/030-020/020-015/015