Archiv von Mittwoch, 4 November 1998 anzeigen
Sonnenaktivitätsbericht
Für jede Sonneneruption in diesem Bericht wird ein Skalierungsfaktor vom Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) angewendet. Aufgrund dieses SWPC-Skalierungsfaktors werden Sonneneruptionen um 42 % kleiner gemeldet als die Daten für wissenschaftliche Zwecke. Der Skalierungsfaktor wurde aus unseren archivierten Sonneneruptionsdaten entfernt, um die tatsächlichen physikalischen Einheiten widerzuspiegeln.
Bericht der solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität 1998 Nov 04 2200 UTCErstellt von NOAA © SWPC und verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive.com
Gemeinsamer Bericht der USAF und NOAA zur solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität
SDF Nummer 308 ausgestellt am 04 NOV 1998 um 2200 Uhr UTCIA. Analyse der aktiven Sonnenflecken-Gruppen und der Aktivität vom 03-2100Z Uhr bis 04-2100Z Uhr SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED APPRECIABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8375 (N18W07) HAS
BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SIX C-CLASS FLARES AS WELL AS
SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES AND ONE 1N OPTICAL FLARE. A FULL HALO CME
WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE AT 04/0418UT. THIS WAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A C5/SF PRODUCED BY REGION 8375. REGION 8375 IS THE
LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE SUN. CURRENTLY A DAI,
BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE
AND THE SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 22 TO 28. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS
ARE 8376 (S27E15), 8378 (N14E63) AND 8379 (S18W28) ALL OF WHICH
PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8379 IS A NEW NUMBERED REGION
WITH A 5 SPOT CRO, BETA SPOT GROUP. ONE OTHER REGION WAS NUMBERED:
8380 (S20E65) WITH AN AXX, ALPHA SPOT.
IB. Sonnenaktivitäts-Prognose
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING FROM REGION 8375.
IIA. Geophysikalische Aktivität vom 03-2100Z Uhr bis 04-2100Z Uhr
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Geophysikalische Aktivitätsprognose
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS. THE
CAUSE FOR THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A
PARTIAL HALO CME THAT WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE ON
02/1354UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C1/N1 FLARE IN REGION 8376
LOCATED AT S25E44 AT THAT TIME. THE FULL HALO CME OBSERVED TODAY AT
04/0418UT COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LATE ON NOVEMBER
6TH OR ON NOVEMBER 7TH.
III. Ereignis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 05 NOV bis 07 NOV
| Klasse M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klasse X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protonensturm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Beobachtet 04 NOV 141 Vorhergesagt 05 NOV-07 NOV 145/150/150 90 Tage Mittel 04 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetischer Ap Index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV ???/??? PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV 020/???-020/???-010/???
VI. Geomagnetische Aktivität - Wahrscheinlichkeiten 05 NOV bis 07 NOV
| A. Mittlere Breiten | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiv | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Geringer Sturm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Schwerwiegender Sturm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hohe Breiten | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiv | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| Geringer Sturm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Schwerwiegender Sturm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
IA. Analyse der aktiven Sonnenflecken-Gruppen und der Aktivität vom 03-2100Z Uhr bis 04-2100Z Uhr SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED APPRECIABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8375 (N18W07) HAS
BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SIX C-CLASS FLARES AS WELL AS
SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES AND ONE 1N OPTICAL FLARE. A FULL HALO CME
WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE AT 04/0418UT. THIS WAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A C5/SF PRODUCED BY REGION 8375. REGION 8375 IS THE
LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE SUN. CURRENTLY A DAI,
BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE
AND THE SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 22 TO 28. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS
ARE 8376 (S27E15), 8378 (N14E63) AND 8379 (S18W28) ALL OF WHICH
PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8379 IS A NEW NUMBERED REGION
WITH A 5 SPOT CRO, BETA SPOT GROUP. ONE OTHER REGION WAS NUMBERED:
8380 (S20E65) WITH AN AXX, ALPHA SPOT.
IB. Sonnenaktivitäts-Prognose
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING FROM REGION 8375.
IIA. Geophysikalische Aktivität vom 03-2100Z Uhr bis 04-2100Z Uhr
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Geophysikalische Aktivitätsprognose
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS. THE
CAUSE FOR THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A
PARTIAL HALO CME THAT WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE ON
02/1354UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C1/N1 FLARE IN REGION 8376
LOCATED AT S25E44 AT THAT TIME. THE FULL HALO CME OBSERVED TODAY AT
04/0418UT COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LATE ON NOVEMBER
6TH OR ON NOVEMBER 7TH.
III. Ereignis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 05 NOV bis 07 NOV
| Klasse M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klasse X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protonensturm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Beobachtet 04 NOV 141 Vorhergesagt 05 NOV-07 NOV 145/150/150 90 Tage Mittel 04 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetischer Ap Index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV 7/7 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV 20/12-20/15-15/10
VI. Geomagnetische Aktivität - Wahrscheinlichkeiten 05 NOV bis 07 NOV
| A. Mittlere Breiten | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiv | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Geringer Sturm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Schwerwiegender Sturm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hohe Breiten | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiv | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| Geringer Sturm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Schwerwiegender Sturm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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