Viewing archive of lördag, 27 oktober 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Oct 27 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 301 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 27 Oct 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. Three low-level C-class flares
were observed from behind the west limb, likely from old Region 1594
(S27, L=200). Region 1598 (S11W10), a Dkc/Beta-Delta spot group,
remained the most magnetically complex region on the visible disk
and produced a B9/Sf flare at 27/1235Z. Region 1596 (N08W48), a
Dao/Beta-Gamma spot group, has shown signs of penumbral decay,
mainly in its trailer spots. The remaining two spot groups were
stable and unremarkable. A CME was observed in STEREO Ahead COR 2
imagery at 27/1824Z. Further analysis will be performed to
determine its geo-effectiveness as data becomes available.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for isolated M-class flares for the next three
days (28-30 October).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained steady at
approximately 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field had minor deflections of +/- 5 nT while the total
field remained steady at 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for the next three days (28-30 October).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 28 Oct till 30 Oct
| M-klass | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 27 Oct 122 Prognoserat 28 Oct-30 Oct 120/115/110 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 122
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 26 Oct 004/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 27 Oct 004/004 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 28 Oct till 30 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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