Viewing archive of söndag, 30 september 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Sep 30 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 274 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 30 Sep 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours with Region 1583 (N12W88) producing an isolated M1 solar
x-ray event at 0433Z. Region 1583 had grown rapidly in the past 24
hours, however it is only hours away from rotating off the solar
disk and out of view. The remaining active regions on the disk
remained stable, producing a few low level C-class events. New
Region 1584 (S23E28) was numbered early in the period, and at the
time of this report, had only produced one low level C-class event.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for continued M-class activity for
the next two days (01 - 02 October). A return to low levels is
expected on day three (03 October), as the active region cluster,
located in the northwest quadrant, rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours. The enhanced activity was due to the arrival of a CME from
27 September. At around 1100Z, measurements from the ACE spacecraft,
indicated the arrival of this CME. At 1138Z, a sudden impulse of 15
nT was measured by the Boulder magnetometer, as the CME reached
Earth. Solar wind velocities increased very little with this
initial phase of the CME, increasing from around 280 - 320 km/s. The
total IMF increased as the CME arrived, with sustained periods of
negative Bz. However, with the lower than expected solar wind
speeds, very little geomagnetic effects have been observed.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with minor storm periods
possible on day one (01 October), as effects of todays CME
continue. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (02
October) as CME effects wane. A return to predominantly quiet levels
is expected on day three (03 October).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 01 Oct till 03 Oct
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 30 Sep 136 Prognoserat 01 Oct-03 Oct 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 29 Sep 004/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 30 Sep 009/011 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 011/015-007/008-004/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 01 Oct till 03 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 10% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 50% | 20% | 10% |
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