Viewing archive of måndag, 1 oktober 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Oct 01 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 275 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 01 Oct 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 30-2100Z till 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1575 (now around the
west limb) produced several C-class x-ray events during the period,
the greatest a C9 at 30/2339Z. No Earth-sided CMEs were observed
leaving the solar disk.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
for day 1 (2 October). Activity is expected to be very low to low on
days 2 and 3 (3 and 4 October), as the complex or regions near the
western extent of the visible solar disk continue beyond the limb.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 30-2100Z till 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at active levels, as weak CME
effects from the previous period continued in progress. The first
period of 1 October saw an increase to severe storm levels, after a
second CME arrived at ACE around 30/2221Z with a subsequent Sudden
Impulse (SI) to Earths magnetic field (35nT measured at Boulder) at
30/2307Z. A single major storm period followed, before conditions
decreased to active and then again to quiet.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (2 October) as CME
effects wane. Days 2 and 3 (3 and 4 October) should see mostly quiet
conditions.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 02 Oct till 04 Oct
| M-klass | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 01 Oct 128 Prognoserat 02 Oct-04 Oct 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 124
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 30 Sep 009/013 Förväntat Afr/Ap 01 Oct 017/031 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 008/010-004/005-004/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 02 Oct till 04 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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