Viewing archive of fredag, 23 november 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Nov 23 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 328 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 23 Nov 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/1212Z from Region 1618 (N08W27). Although this region retained its
beta-gamma-delta magnetic characteristics, it experienced intermediate
penumbral decay. All other regions on the disk remained stable and
quiet. Between 1200 and 1300Z, a 29 degree filament was observed in SDO
AIA 304 imagery lifting off from the southeast limb. The subsequent CME
was observed in STEREO-A and B COR2 imagery beginning around 1400Z.
Using geometric localization, a preliminary speed of approximately 550
km/s was obtained. This suggests an arrival at earth early on 27
November.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels, with a slight chance for moderate activity, for the entire
forecast period (24-26 Nov).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft reached 389km/s at 23/2117Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 23/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz was -8.8 nT at
23/2112Z. These values coincided with the arrival of an interplanetary
shock at ACE around 23/2112Z from the 20 Nov CME. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached a maximum of 1408 pfu.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to begin at active levels and reach major storm levels early on
day one (24 Nov) with the effects from the 20 Nov CME coupled with the
anticipated arrival of the 21 Nov CME. On day two (25 Nov), conditions
are expected to return to unsettled to active levels due to residual CME
effects combined with a coronal hole high speed stream. The unsettled
levels may persist into day three (26 November).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 24 Nov till 26 Nov
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 23 Nov 126 Prognoserat 24 Nov-26 Nov 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 123
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 22 Nov 001/001 Förväntat Afr/Ap 23 Nov 005/007 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 023/090-013/018-006/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 24 Nov till 26 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 15% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 65% | 50% | 05% |
Senaste nytt
måndag, 22 april 2024
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lördag, 23 mars 2024
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onsdag, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Senaste inläggen
AR3663 50Unproven theories 3812024/05/03 X1.69 CME 9Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1013Filaments and prominences 69
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/05/03 | X1.6 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/05/03 | M4.4 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/05/02 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| april 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| Last 30 days | 149.4 +51.8 |