Viewing archive of lördag, 15 september 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Sep 15 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 259 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 Sep 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Low-level B-class x-ray
flares occurred during the period. Region 1566 (N23W76 - Hrx/alpha)
produced occasional B-class flares as it approached the west limb.
Occasional B-class flares also occurred from a yet-to-be-numbered
small spot group that rotated into view late in the period. Region
1569 (S12W00 - Eao/beta-gamma) showed minor spot growth in its
trailer portion and retained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
New Region 1572 (N15W70 - Axx/alpha) was numbered. There was no
Earth-directed CME activity observed during the period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low during days 1 - 3 (16 - 18 September) with a chance for isolated
C-class flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled levels around midday on day 1 (16
September) with a chance for active levels due to the arrival of the
CME associated with the filament disappearance observed on 13
September. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on day 2 (17 September) as CME effects subside. A
further decrease to quiet levels is expected on day 3 (18
September).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 Sep till 18 Sep
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 15 Sep 098 Prognoserat 16 Sep-18 Sep 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 14 Sep 005/005 Förväntat Afr/Ap 15 Sep 006/007 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 011/015-007/010-006/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 Sep till 18 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 30% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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