Viewing archive of fredag, 12 oktober 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Oct 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 286 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Oct 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1589 (N13E35) was
responsible for several low level C-flares and a C9/1f flare at
12/0820Z. Region 1589 continues to maintain its Beta-Gamma magnetic
classification. New region 1591 (N07E71) rotated onto the disk as a
bipolar D-type group.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-flare
during the forecast period (13-15 October).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed,
measured at the ACE spacecraft, ranged between approximately 450 and
550 km/s. Prolonged periods of southward Bz (near -5 nT) coupled
with enhanced wind speed resulted in an isolated active period
between 12/0300 - 0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (13 October). A coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on days
2-3 (14-15 October) resulting in quiet to unsettled conditions with
a chance for active periods. On day 3, a slight chance exists for a
greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit as Region
1589 rotates into a more geoeffective position.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Oct till 15 Oct
| M-klass | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Oct 122 Prognoserat 13 Oct-15 Oct 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Oct 012/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 007/008-010/012-011/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Oct till 15 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 40% | 40% |
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