Viewing archive of fredag, 14 september 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Sep 14 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 258 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 Sep 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region 1569 (S12E14) produced occasional B-class flares. It showed a slight decrease in intermediate spots, but retained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No significant changes were observed in the remaining spotted regions. No new regions were numbered. No Earth-directed CME activity occurred during the period.IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (15 - 17 September) with a chance for a
C-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (15
September) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream. A further
increase to unsettled levels is expected on day 2 (16 September)
with a chance for active levels due to the arrival of the CME
associated with the filament disappearance on 13 September. Field
activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day
3 (17 September).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 Sep till 17 Sep
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 14 Sep 101 Prognoserat 15 Sep-17 Sep 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 13 Sep 006/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 14 Sep 003/003 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 009/010-011/015-007/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 Sep till 17 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 30% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 30% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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