Viewing archive of lördag, 12 maj 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 May 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 133 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 May 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1476 (N11W18) continues to be the source region for a
majority of the flares, producing nine C-class flares, the largest
of which was a C3 that occurred at 11/2302Z. This region has shown
some signs of decay, but maintains an Fkc/beta-gamma-delta
configuration. A full halo CME was observed on LASCO C2 imagery at
12/0000Z. Preliminary analysis indicated the edge of the CME may
skirt the earth, but no major impacts are expected.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with isolated M-class flares for the next
three days (13-15 May).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours with periods of active levels at high latitudes . The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (13 May),
then fall to quiet levels on day two (14 May). Day three is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
levels due to the potential glancing blow from todays CME.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 May till 15 May
| M-klass | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 May 130 Prognoserat 13 May-15 May 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 12 May 113
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 May 010/013 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 May 008/009 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 007/008-006/005-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 May till 15 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 05% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 10% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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