Viewing archive of fredag, 8 juni 2012

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jun 08 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 160 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 08 Jun 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1494 (S18W33) produced a C7 flare at 08/0307Z. The flare was accompanied by Type II and Type IV radio emissions at 08/0305Z and 08/0308Z, respectively. A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0443Z emerging from the southern hemisphere. Analysis of LASCO and STEREO COR2 coronagraph imagery indicated a speed of approximately 380 km/s. A subsequent model run suggested a glancing blow at earth late on June 12th. Filament eruptions were observed from the NE limb at 08/1645Z in SDO 304 imagery and at 08/1756Z in LASCO C2. A second eruption near N10E50 was observed in SDO 304 imagery at 08/1706Z. The first eruption is not expected to be geoeffective; the second is being evaluted.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an isolated M-class event for the next three days (09-11 June).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Data from the ACE spacecraft suggested the possible arrival of the CME from 05 June around 08/0800Z. A couple of unsettled periods followed, but most of the day was quiet. Wind speed at ACE declined throughout the period and ended the day near 500 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF was generally neutral to slightly negative for the first half of the day, and generally positive for the last half. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (09 June). The CME from 06 June is expected to arrive on day 2 (10 June), bringing unsettled conditions with a chance for an isolated active period through day 3 (11 June).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 09 Jun till 11 Jun
M-klass25%25%25%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       08 Jun 124
  Prognoserat   09 Jun-11 Jun  125/125/130
  90 Day Mean        08 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 07 Jun  008/008
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 08 Jun  009/008
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  006/005-007/010-007/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 09 Jun till 11 Jun
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt10%20%20%
Små stormförhållanden05%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden15%25%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%30%30%

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