Viewing archive of fredag, 11 maj 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 May 11 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 132 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 May 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours with several C-class x-ray flares. Region 1476 (N10W06) was
the source for nearly all of the reported flares, with the largest
being a C6 that occurred at 11/1738Z. This region has remained
mostly consistent as an Fkc/beta-gamma-delta spot group, but has
shown some signs of decay, mainly in the trailer spots. New Regions
1479 (N15E65) and 1480 (S16W10) were numbered over the last 24
hours, are Hsx/Axx classifications respectively, and have yet to
show much activity.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class x-ray flares for
the next three days (12 - 14 May) as Region 1476 keeps its
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta configuration.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours. Solar wind measurements, as observed by the ACE
spacecraft, showed a fairly steady drop in speeds from approximately
650 km/s down to approximately 550 km/s. The effects of the coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) should begin to wane over the next
24-48hrs. The total IMF remains fairly stable at approximately 5
nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two
(12-13 May), then return to quiet levels on day three (14 May).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 May till 14 May
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 11 May 136 Prognoserat 12 May-14 May 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 11 May 113
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 10 May 011/013 Förväntat Afr/Ap 11 May 011/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 May till 14 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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