Viewing archive of tisdag, 3 augusti 2010
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2010 Aug 03 2201 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 215 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 03 Aug 2010IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1092 (N15W04)
produced an isolated B-class flare. Region 1092 remained a stable
Cho-type group with a beta magnetic configuration. No new regions
were assigned.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there will be a chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 1092.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels until late in
the period. Activity increased to unsettled to active levels
following a sudden geomagnetic impulse (SI) at 03/1741Z (21 nT, as
measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). The SI was preceded by
the arrival of an interplanetary shock at the ACE spacecraft at
03/1656Z. Both effects were due to the arrival of a CME associated
with the long-duration C3 flare on 01 August. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day 1 (04
August) as the current CME passage continues. Activity is forecast
to increase to active to minor storm levels with a chance for major
storm levels on day 2 (05 August) due to the arrival of the halo-CME
observed on 01 August (associated with a large filament
disappearance). Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to
active levels on day 3 (06 August) as CME effects subside.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 04 Aug till 06 Aug
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 03 Aug 081 Prognoserat 04 Aug-06 Aug 082/084/084 90 Day Mean 03 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 02 Aug 005/005 Förväntat Afr/Ap 03 Aug 012/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 020/025-030/035-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 04 Aug till 06 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 40% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 15% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 45% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 35% | 01% |
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