Viewing archive of onsdag, 4 augusti 2010
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2010 Aug 04 2201 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 216 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 Aug 2010IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. New Region
1093 (N10E63) produced a few B-class flares as it rotated into view
and was classified as a Cao-type group with a beta magnetic
configuration. Region 1092 (N14W15) was quiet and stable during the
period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there will be a chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 1093.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm
levels due to a CME passage associated with a long-duration C3 flare
on 01 August. The major storm levels occurred during 03/2100 -
04/0300Z and were associated with increased solar wind velocities
(peak 657 km/s), increased IMF BT (peak 18 nT), and a sustained
period of southward IMF Bz (peak deflection -13 nT). Activity was at
unsettled to minor storm levels after 04/0300Z. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased to normal to
moderate levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels until midday on day 1
(05 August). Activity is forecast to increase to active to minor
storm levels with a chance for major storm levels beginning midday
on 05 August due to the expected arrival of a CME associated with a
large filament disappearance on 01 August. Activity is expected to
decrease to unsettled to minor storm levels on day 2 (06 August) as
the CME passage continues. A further decrease to quiet to unsettled
levels is expected on day 3 (07 August).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 Aug till 07 Aug
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 04 Aug 081 Prognoserat 05 Aug-07 Aug 082/084/084 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 03 Aug 014/020 Förväntat Afr/Ap 04 Aug 027/030 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 030/035-020/020-007/007
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 Aug till 07 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 40% | 25% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 40% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 45% | 30% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 30% | 10% | 01% |
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