Viewing archive of måndag, 2 augusti 2010
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2010 Aug 02 2201 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 214 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 Aug 2010IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Two B-class flares were
observed, one of which was produced by Region 1092 (N16E10). Region
1092 showed a minor increase in spot count during the period and was
classified as a Cho group with a beta magnetic configuration. No new
regions were assigned.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there will be a chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 1092.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high throughout the
period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (03 August)
due to the arrival of the first of two CMEs observed on 01 August
(this CME was associated with the long-duration C3/Sf flare at
01/0826Z). Activity is expected to be at active to minor storm
levels with a slight chance for major storm on days 2 - 3 (04 - 05
August) due to the arrival of the second slower CME observed on 01
August (associated with a large filament disappearance).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 Aug till 05 Aug
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 02 Aug 079 Prognoserat 03 Aug-05 Aug 080/082/084 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 01 Aug 002/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 02 Aug 003/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 012/012-018/022-020/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 Aug till 05 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 40% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 45% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 25% | 35% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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