Viewing archive of torsdag, 9 december 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Dec 09 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 344 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 09 Dec 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C1/Sf flare occurred
in Region 710 (S07E33) at 09/0012Z. Limited LASCO imagery revealed
what is likely a full halo CME associated with yesterday's long
duration C2/Sf flare and filament eruption at 08/1959Z. No other
activity of note occurred.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for a low C-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 09/0900 - 1200Z. A sustained period of southward Bz
produced the active conditions. Solar wind speed declined to near
400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storming. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 10 December. Transient flow associated
with the long duration C2 flare and CME on 09 December is expected
to arrive on 11 December. Expect active to minor storm levels with
isolated major storm periods on 11 and 12 December. A return to
quiet to occasional active levels are expected by the end of the
three-day period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 10 Dec till 12 Dec
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 09 Dec 087 Prognoserat 10 Dec-12 Dec 085/085/090 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 106
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 08 Dec 009/010 Förväntat Afr/Ap 09 Dec 010/009 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 008/008-020/020-030/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 10 Dec till 12 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 45% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 15% | 15% |
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