Viewing archive of fredag, 12 november 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Nov 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 317 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Nov 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity dropped to very low levels. Region 696
(N08W87) is in decay and rotating quietly around the west limb. A
weak Type II radio sweep (553 km/s) followed a B7 flare in Region
699 (S14E27). A faint CME was observed off the SE limb, which was
not Earth directed. No other significant changes were noted.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with
major storm periods at high latitudes. This disturbance is due to
the CME activity on 09 and 10 November. Solar wind speed ranged from
550 to over 700 km/s, but was trending down during the latter half
of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues. The
proton event began on 07/1910Z, following the X2 flare on 07/1606Z.
The peak was 495 pfu at 08/0115Z and the current flux is ranging
between 20 - 30 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 13 November. Predominantly quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on 14 and 15 November. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event in progress now is expected to gradually
decline to below the event threshold on 13 November.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Nov till 15 Nov
| M-klass | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 99% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Nov 097 Prognoserat 13 Nov-15 Nov 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 108
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Nov 022/023 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Nov 030/030 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 015/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Nov till 15 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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