Viewing archive of onsdag, 5 januari 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Jan 05 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 005 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Jan 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Though very low, two
events of note occurred. The first was a prolonged B8 flare at
05/0522Z from Region 715 (N04W33). This event had an associated
faint full halo CME. The second event was a large 30 degree filament
eruption from near N01E14. This solar event also resulted in a full
halo CME with an impressive post-CME arcade on SXI and EIT imagery.
Most of the ejecta associated with this CME did not appear to be
Earth-directed. A third faint halo CME was also observed on LASCO
imagery on 04/1254Z. This CME was likely associated with the C7
flare in Region 715 on 04/1113Z. Region 715, a small beta group in
decay, contains the only sunspots on the visible disk.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 715.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind speed began the period near 750 km/s, but gradually
declined to near 600 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. The current high
speed solar wind stream is expected to gradually decline through 06
January. Three different CMEs over the past two days may cause
occasional storm periods.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Jan till 08 Jan
| M-klass | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 05 Jan 088 Prognoserat 06 Jan-08 Jan 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Jan 016/023 Förväntat Afr/Ap 05 Jan 020/022 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 015/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Jan till 08 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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