Viewing archive of onsdag, 19 maj 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 May 19 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 140 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 May 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Two small C-class flares
occurred in an unnumbered region rotating onto the disk near SE10.
Regions currently on the visible disk have been relatively quiet
with only a few B-class flares observed.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Sunspots associated with the new region at the southeast limb are
expected to rotate into view within the next 24 hours. B and C-class
flares are most likely to occur in this new region.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. An isolated
active period occurred at some locations at 19/1500-1800 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit
will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about May 30 to June
2, 2004. During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere
with spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind
plasma, magnetic field, and particle data.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 May till 22 May
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 May 109 Prognoserat 20 May-22 May 110/110/100 90 Day Mean 19 May 105
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 18 May 004/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 19 May 008/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 008/015-008/010-008/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 May till 22 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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