Viewing archive of tisdag, 15 juni 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Jun 15 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 167 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 Jun 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 634 (N11E48) produced a
C1/1f flare at 15/2001Z. Region 634 is a moderately complex sunspot
group covering 370 millionths of white light area. Region 635
(S10E65) has rotated into view and also exhibits a moderately
complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration with almost 400 millionths
of white light area coverage. These regions were the likely source
for a series of strong CMEs that originated from behind the west
limb during the first week of June. A CME observed off the southwest
limb at approximately 0800Z, originated from behind the west limb.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class activity is possible from Regions 634
and 635.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Periods of southward IMF Bz associated with weak transient flow
created the most disturbed periods. Solar wind speed gradually
increased during the period associated with a southern coronal hole
rotating into a geoeffective position.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Isolated high-latitude minor storm
periods are possible through 17 June.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 Jun till 18 Jun
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 15 Jun 109 Prognoserat 16 Jun-18 Jun 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 14 Jun 009/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 15 Jun 015/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 015/015-015/015-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 Jun till 18 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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