Viewing archive of torsdag, 20 maj 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 May 20 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 141 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 May 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z Solar activity was low. Newly assigned Region 618
(S10E69) produced all of today's three C-class flares. The other
sunspot regions on the disk were quiet and stable. A filament in the
northeast quadrant erupted at 0136 UTC and was associated with a CME
off the northeast solar limb. The angular width of the CME was
narrow and the transient does not appear to be directed towards
Earth.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Most of the activity is expected to occur in Region 618.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. However, there
was a period of minor storm levels from 0900-1200 UTC. Solar wind
data at ACE showed a steady increase in solar wind velocity from
initial values around 380 km/s up to about 500 km/s by forecast
issue time. Elevated solar wind temperature and wave patterns in the
magnetic field data suggest that the enhancement may originate from
a coronal hole.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled but with a fair chance for some
isolated active periods during the next two days (21-22 May). A
decline to quiet to unsettled is expected around mid-day on the
third day (23 May).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 May till 23 May
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 20 May 105 Prognoserat 21 May-23 May 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 20 May 105
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 19 May 006/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 20 May 015/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 012/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 May till 23 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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