Viewing archive of lördag, 14 juni 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jun 14 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 165 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 Jun 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. An M1.5 flare
occurred at 0609Z on the southeast limb. Region 380 (S16W25) has
decreased in area coverage and has simplified to a beta magnetic
configuration. An eleven degree disappearing solar filament was
observed lifting off at near N27W09 at 13/2217Z.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The region from beyond the southeast limb is likely to
rotate onto the visible disk on day one and have M-class potential.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. The onset
of the expected coronal hole was marked by a co-rotating interacting
region with solar wind speed increasing to near 600 km/s and a 12
hour period of minor storm levels. Late in the period indications
of a possible shock passage at the NASA/ACE spacecraft coincided
with a major storm period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Isolated minor
storm levels are expected on day one due to high speed flow and CME
shock effects. By day two activity is expected to be at unsettled
to active levels.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 Jun till 17 Jun
| M-klass | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| X-klass | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 14 Jun 134 Prognoserat 15 Jun-17 Jun 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 13 Jun 008/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 14 Jun 035/035 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 020/025-015/015-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 Jun till 17 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Senaste nytt
måndag, 22 april 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
lördag, 23 mars 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
onsdag, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Senaste inläggen
2024/05/03 X1.69 CME 12AR3663 75Latest SC25 Predictions 106Does anyone know what happened to solarham.net? 5AR3664 2
Fler foruminläggStöd SpaceWeatherLive.com!
För att vara tillgängliga vid stora norrskensutbrott måsta vi ha kraftiga servrar som kan hantera alla besökare. Donera och stöd vårt projekt, så att vi kan finnas online även under stora stormar!
Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/05/03 | X1.6 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/05/04 | M1.6 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/05/02 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| april 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| Last 30 days | 151.9 +56.5 |