Viewing archive of fredag, 13 juni 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jun 13 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 164 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 Jun 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 375 (N12W84)
produced an M2.6 at 12/2127 UTC, an M3.1 at 13/0204 UTC, an M1.7/Sf
at 13/0437 UTC, and an M1.8/Sf at 13/0645 UTC. The first two
M-class flares were optically correlated with SXI imagery. Region
375 decreased in size as it reached the west limb. Region 380
(S16W11) remains stable. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380 both remain capable of
producing major flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar
wind speed decreased to about 400 km/s. After 13/1700Z, solar wind
speeds increased to about 450 km/s and total interplanetary magnetic
field at L1 showed steady increase. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through day three, with possible
active conditions on day one due to elevated solar wind speeds as a
coronal hole moves into geoeffective position, and also due to
potential CMEs related to major flare and erupting filament activity
on 11 June 03.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 Jun till 16 Jun
| M-klass | 75% | 60% | 40% |
| X-klass | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Proton | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 Jun 151 Prognoserat 14 Jun-16 Jun 145/130/120 90 Day Mean 13 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 12 Jun 007/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 13 Jun 007/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 015/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 Jun till 16 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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