Viewing archive of söndag, 15 juni 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jun 15 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 166 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 Jun 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of
the day was a long duration C3 flare that originated from beyond the
southeast limb at 1457Z. Other minor C-class activity was
predominantly from Region 375 (N12, L=22) beyond the northwest limb.
Region 380 (S17W36) continues to decay in area coverage and is now
at 180 millionths. New Region 385 (N30E30) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The region beyond the southeast limb is expected to
rotate onto the visible disk on day one and have isolated M-class
potential. This region is likely old region 365 which was very
active during its last rotation.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The
geomagnetic field has been disturbed by a combination of high speed
flow effects and weak shocks that were observed yesterday and today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active conditions with isolated minor
storming possible early on day one. Activity on day two is expected
to be quiet to unsettled. Late on day three a coronal hole is due
to rotate into a geoeffective position with unsettled to active
conditions expected.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 Jun till 18 Jun
| M-klass | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 15 Jun 129 Prognoserat 16 Jun-18 Jun 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 14 Jun 018/032 Förväntat Afr/Ap 15 Jun 020/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 015/015-012/015-015/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 Jun till 18 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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