Viewing archive of onsdag, 11 juni 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jun 11 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 162 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 Jun 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 375 (N10W62)
produced major flare activity including an X1.3/2b at 11/0002 UTC
and an X1.6/1n at 11/2015 UTC. Region 375 maintained its size and
magnetic complexity. Region 380 produced an M1.8/1f at 11/1743 UTC.
At 11/1730 UTC a filament near S37E12 erupted and was observed on
SOHO/EIT and Mauna Loa H-alpha. Background X-ray flux remained at
M levels for 6 hours during the period beginning at about 1300 UTC.
New Region 383 (N19E22) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380 remain capable of producing
major flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels, due to
continued effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active through day one, with isolated
periods of minor storm conditions possible due to CME arrival from
yesterday's flare activity. Unsettled conditions are expected on
days two and three as the coronal hole wind stream moves out of
geoeffective position. Active conditions are possible on day three
due to potential effects of CMEs related to the major flares and
erupting filament observed today.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 Jun till 14 Jun
| M-klass | 95% | 95% | 75% |
| X-klass | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 11 Jun 193 Prognoserat 12 Jun-14 Jun 160/150/145 90 Day Mean 11 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 10 Jun 019/027 Förväntat Afr/Ap 11 Jun 020/017 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 010/015-010/012-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 Jun till 14 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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