Viewing archive of tisdag, 10 juni 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jun 10 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 161 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 Jun 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been very high. Region 375 (N12W46) produced major flare activity including an X1.7 event at 09/2139 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep and was optically correlated with SXI imagery. The region also produced numerous M-class flares including an M5.1/2n flare at 10/1112 UTC, and an M5.6/Sf flare at 10/1815 UTC. Region 375 continued its rapid growth over the period (an increase to 1200 millionths), and maintains its delta magnetic configuration. Region 380 (S15E29) increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma-delta configuration. An optically uncorrelated Type IV radio sweep was observed at 0014 UTC. LASCO imagery observed a partial-halo CME beginning at 10/0606 UTC, most likely associated with former Region 365 (S07,L=182) on the back side of the sun. New Region 382 (S18W17) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380 both remain capable of producing a major flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. This activity is due to continued coronal hole high speed stream effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with isolated periods of minor storm conditions through day one. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for days two and three as solar wind speeds are expected to decrease.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 Jun till 13 Jun
M-klass80%70%60%
X-klass40%20%20%
Proton20%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       10 Jun 177
  Prognoserat   11 Jun-13 Jun  155/150/145
  90 Day Mean        10 Jun 123
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 09 Jun  020/028
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 10 Jun  025/027
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  015/020-010/020-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 Jun till 13 Jun
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%20%20%
Små stormförhållanden15%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden30%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%

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