Viewing archive of torsdag, 15 maj 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 May 15 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.comUSAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 135 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 May 2003
IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been low. Two new regions were
numbered today: Region 361 (N09E39) and Region 362 (S10E77).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with possible increase in activity over the next few days due
to active regions emerging from the east limb. New region 362 may
produce isolated flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due
to a high speed solar wind stream from a favorably positioned
coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the next three
days. Solar wind speeds should continue to reduce over the next few
days, and may cause isolated minor storm levels on day one.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 May till 18 May
M-klass | 10% | 15% | 20% |
X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 15 May 099
Prognoserat 16 May-18 May 105/110/120
90 Day Mean 15 May 123
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 14 May 017/027
Förväntat Afr/Ap 15 May 015/022
Prognoserat Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 010/015-010/015-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 May till 18 May
A. Medelhöga breddgrader |
Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
B. Höga breddgrader |
Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
VII. Comments
The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. As of 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 became the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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