Viewing archive of torsdag, 3 april 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 03 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 093 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 03 Apr 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels. A significant
C-class flare from Region 324 (S11W35) occurred at 1027 UTC. This
region has rapidly increased in both size and complexity over the
last 24 hours. New Regions 329 (N01E18) and 330 (N07E74) were
numbered today. No other significant activity occurred.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 324 (S11W35) and 321 (N08W54) are sufficiently
complex and should continue to be for the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled levels. The high speed stream
which began on 30 March is subsiding, but continued instability in
the interplanetary magnetic field is maintaining our unsettled
activity levels. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of
active for the next two days due to the subsiding high speed stream.
By day three, the solar wind will increase again, and combined with
the potential for southward Bz, is likely to cause an increase to
unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storming.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 04 Apr till 06 Apr
| M-klass | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 03 Apr 156 Prognoserat 04 Apr-06 Apr 155/155/150 90 Day Mean 03 Apr 135
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 02 Apr 011/020 Förväntat Afr/Ap 03 Apr 015/013 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 010/010-010/012-008/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 04 Apr till 06 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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