Viewing archive of onsdag, 30 april 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 30 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 120 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 30 Apr 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 349 (S13E07)
produced a C3/Sf flare at 29/2349Z along with a number of other
minor C-class flares. This region continues steady growth and there
is some weak polarity mixing in the southern intermediate spot.
Region 344 (N15W41) has entered a decay phase but retains its
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Two new regions were numbered
today: Region 350 (S12W59) and Region 351 (N06E76).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 349 has the potential for M-class
events.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. Most
of the activity was at active to minor storm levels. Periods of
southward Bz early in the day resulted in an isolated period of
major storm levels. Solar wind speed gradually increased throughout
the day to near 650 km/s.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. A combination of
transient flow and coronal hole high speed flow are expected to keep
the geomagnetic field disturbed for day one and day two of the
period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 01 May till 03 May
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 30 Apr 154 Prognoserat 01 May-03 May 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 128
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 29 Apr 013/020 Förväntat Afr/Ap 30 Apr 033/039 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 015/025-015/025-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 01 May till 03 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/05/03 | X1.6 |
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|---|---|
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