Viewing archive of fredag, 7 mars 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Mar 07 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 066 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 Mar 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z

Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 296 (N13W18), a relatively large and moderately complex region, has been dormant for the duration of its transit on the visible disk. This region was in a slow decay phase over the past few days, but still shows some complexity. Region 301 (N22W05) though small, is in a slow growth phase, and exhibited considerable plage fluctuations and minor surging throughout the period. Newly numbered Region 306 (N05E76) rotated into view this period; a relatively large sunspot group is evident, but limb proximity hinders a more thorough analysis. This region was the likely source of a large CME observed off the NE limb early on 6 March. Three other new sunspot groups emerged today and were numbered as 303 (S18W47), 304 (S13W16), and 305 (S22E27).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low. Regions 296, 301, and 306 all have potential for C-class flares. There is a slight chance for an M-class flare from Regions 296 and 306.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Isolated active periods were observed during local nighttime hours at all latitudes. The high speed coronal hole stream responsible for the disturbed periods over the past few days has gradually declined to near normal levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible at mostly higher latitudes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 Mar till 10 Mar
M-klass15%20%20%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       07 Mar 150
  Prognoserat   08 Mar-10 Mar  155/160/160
  90 Day Mean        07 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 06 Mar  015/025
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 07 Mar  012/012
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  010/012-010/012-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 Mar till 10 Mar
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%20%20%
Små stormförhållanden05%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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