Viewing archive of fredag, 25 oktober 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Oct 25 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 298 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 Oct 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 162 (N26W18) produced a long duration M1.5/1f event at 25/1747 UTC along with multiple C-class flares today. The M1.5/1f flare produced an associated Type II (estimated shock velocity of 389 km/s) and a Type IV radio sweep. SOHO/LASCO imagery was insufficient at the time of this writing to determine whether an earth-directed CME accompanied this flare. This region retains a small delta magnetic structure that has underwent slight decay since yesterday. A disappearing solar filament (approximately 67 heliographic degrees) was seen to dissipate around 25/0600 UTC in the southeast quadrant of the disk. Two separate H-class spot groups were newly assigned today, Regions 170 (S12E65) and 171 (N10E76).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels due to the magnetic complexity of Region 162.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. The large coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere continues to elevate the high speed solar wind (approximate average speed of 700 km/s). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. The coronal hole high speed stream effects should persist through day one and into day two of the forecast period, returning to predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions by day three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 Oct till 28 Oct
M-klass50%50%50%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       25 Oct 173
  Prognoserat   26 Oct-28 Oct  170/170/170
  90 Day Mean        25 Oct 179
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 24 Oct  022/047
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 25 Oct  035/040
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  025/025-015/015-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 Oct till 28 Oct
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%25%20%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt50%30%25%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%01%

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