Viewing archive of torsdag, 21 november 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Nov 21 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 325 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 21 Nov 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Multiple C-class
flares were observed today, all from Region 198 (S18E02). The
largest flare was a C6.6/Sf that occurred at 21/1104 UTC. Magnetic
complexity and white-light spot coverage went mostly unchanged
today. Region 195 (S17W24) continues to undergo a slow but steady
decay. A small cluster of umbra materialized today between the two
previously mentioned regions becoming newly numbered Region 201
(S16W09).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected at low to
moderate levels. Region 198 remains capable of producing M-class
flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at active to minor storm
levels. Isolated major storm conditions were seen at all latitudes
and a period of severe storm levels were observed at high latitudes
between 21/0600 to 0900 UTC. Elevated geomagnetic activity is in
response to a favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels. Isolated major
storm to severe storm conditions (mostly at high latitudes) are
possible through day one. A steady return to quiet to unsettled
conditions should occur during the remainder of the forecast period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit should
reach moderate to high levels by day three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 22 Nov till 24 Nov
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 21 Nov 151 Prognoserat 22 Nov-24 Nov 150/150/155 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 20 Nov 013/017 Förväntat Afr/Ap 21 Nov 035/055 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 025/035-015/020-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 22 Nov till 24 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 05% |
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