Viewing archive of torsdag, 24 oktober 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Oct 24 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 297 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 24 Oct 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 162 (N26W04) produced
the largest of the few flares occurring today, an impulsive C7/1n at
1810UTC. Modest discrete frequency bursts and a type IV sweep
accompanied the flare. The flare site was just west of the large
leader spot, far from the seemingly more complicated central portion
of this elongated group. The serpentine plage field spans the full
extent of the region. Two new regions were assigned, Region 168
(N24W66) and 169 (S19E75).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. The disturbance was fueled by high speed solar
wind (approx. 700 km/s), emanating from a large coronal hole in the
western solar hemisphere. The speed began to increase substantially
around 0800UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 24
hours, as the high speed solar wind continues to buffet the
magnetosphere. Conditions are then expected return to more normal
levels during the last 48 hours, as the solar wind calms.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 25 Oct till 27 Oct
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 24 Oct 160 Prognoserat 25 Oct-27 Oct 160/155/155 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 179
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 23 Oct 006/010 Förväntat Afr/Ap 24 Oct 030/040 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 25 Oct till 27 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 40% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 60% | 50% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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