Viewing archive of lördag, 20 april 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Apr 20 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 110 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 Apr 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Most of today's activity consisted of occasional C-class flares. The largest of these was a C4/Sf from Region 9912 at 1548 UTC. Region 9912 showed significant growth during the past 24 hours and is a D-type sunspot region. Region 9906 (S14W79) continues to be the largest group on the disk and is beginning to cross the west limb.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event sometime during the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels at mid-latitudes and was active to severe storm at high latitudes. The peak of the magnetic storm occurred from 0000-0900 UTC in association with strong transient solar wind flow. The level of geomagnetic activity weakened to mostly active during the last nine hours, consistent with the slow return of solar wind flow to nominal levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active during the next 24 hours as the current disturbance subsides. Conditions should be mostly unsettled by the second day, and quiet to unsettled by the third day. There is a possibility for enhancement of greater than 2 MeV electrons during the next 24-36 hours due to the current high solar wind speeds.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 Apr till 23 Apr
M-klass35%30%25%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       20 Apr 177
  Prognoserat   21 Apr-23 Apr  170/170/170
  90 Day Mean        20 Apr 200
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 19 Apr  036/044
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 20 Apr  040/060
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr  015/020-010/010-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 Apr till 23 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt45%25%20%
Små stormförhållanden20%20%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt45%30%25%
Små stormförhållanden20%20%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden20%10%10%

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