Viewing archive of söndag, 24 mars 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Mar 24 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 083 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 24 Mar 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9876 (S15E18) produced a long-duration C5/Sf flare at 24/1754 UTC. This region showed a minor spot increase near its leader spots, but showed an overall decrease in area due to a decrease in penumbral coverage in its trailer spots. It remained moderately complex with mixed polarities within its trailer portion. Region 9881 (S03W34) showed minor spot growth and produced a C4/Sf flare at 24/2036 UTC. Spot growth was also observed in Region 9880 (N07W08), but it produced no optical flares. Region 9878 (N09E28) retained moderate magnetic complexity, but showed no significant changes.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There's a fair chance for isolated, low-level M-class activity during the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity increased to active to major storm levels during 24/0200 - 1200 UTC. Field activity decreased to active to minor storm levels during 24/1200 - 1800 UTC, then decreased to mostly unsettled levels for the rest of the period. The increase in activity coincided with a period of sustained southward IMF Bz (maximum southerly deflections to minus 12 nT (GSM), as measured by NASA's ACE spacecraft). The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/2020 UTC ended at 23/2030 UTC. The peak flux for this event was 16 pfu at 23/1320 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 25 March. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during the rest of the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 25 Mar till 27 Mar
M-klass40%40%40%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       24 Mar 175
  Prognoserat   25 Mar-27 Mar  170/165/165
  90 Day Mean        24 Mar 210
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 23 Mar  008/009
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 24 Mar  035/050
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  015/020-010/010-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 25 Mar till 27 Mar
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden10%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden15%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%01%01%

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