Viewing archive of fredag, 17 maj 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 May 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 137 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 May 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An M1 event was observed
by SOHO/LASCO EIT images at 17/0123 UTC from Region 9957 (N08E58).
Another M1 occurred at 17/0754 UTC with an associated TYPE II radio
sweep. This event was optically uncorrelated , however, EIT images
suggest the source behind the NE limb. The largest event was an
M2/Sf at 17/1608 UTC from Region 9954 (S22E40). Region 9957 is the
most complex region on the disk and has developed a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. The region was split into two groups today
with the leading spot group numbered as Region 9958 (N04E50).
Another new region was numbered today as Region 9959 (N10E09).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9957 is capable of producing an isolated major
flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. An isolated
active period was observed at high latitudes at 17/1800 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible
on 19 May as a result of the CME from 16 May.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 May till 20 May
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 May 157 Prognoserat 18 May-20 May 160/165/170 90 Day Mean 17 May 185
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 May 006/012 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 May 005/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 010/010-020/020-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 May till 20 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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