Viewing archive of fredag, 5 april 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 095 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Apr 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Several weak C-class flares occurred throughout the period, from sources including most of the larger active regions on the visible disk. The largest event of the period was a C4/Sf at 04/2306 UTC, from a source near newly numbered Region 9895 (N06E58). Two other regions were numbered today, 9894 (N14W09), and 9896 (S11E74). Newly numbered Region 9896 appears to be the return of old Region 9866, which was a source of several energetic flares on its last transit. It now appears as a large, single polarity spot (possibly the leading spot of a large bipolar group), though lacks any evident bright plage area as would be expected for an energetic region. It's present position near the east limb prevents detailed analysis.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low to moderate, though a chance for an isolated major flare exists, particularly for the emergent regions near the east limb.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with an isolated unsettled period observed at higher latitudes during 05/1800-2100 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux observed at geosynchronous orbit was again at high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled. A chance for isolated active periods exists for days two and three of the forecast period. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain above event threshold for most of the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Apr till 08 Apr
M-klass60%60%60%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       05 Apr 217
  Prognoserat   06 Apr-08 Apr  215/210/205
  90 Day Mean        05 Apr 203
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Apr  006/008
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  004/006
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  008/008-010/010-012/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Apr till 08 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt10%15%20%
Små stormförhållanden01%01%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%20%
Små stormförhållanden01%01%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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