Viewing archive of lördag, 9 mars 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Mar 09 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 068 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 09 Mar 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate, due to the occurrence of a long-duration M2/1f flare from Region 9866 (S10E73) at 09/1856 UTC. This region has rotated into better view and now appears as a large and moderately complex bipolar group (in an Eko beta-gamma configuration, with 560 millionths areal coverage in white light). No reports of radio sweeps or SOHO/LASCO imagery, inferring potential CME characteristics, were received prior to the end of the period. Today's 10.7cm noon flux reading of 208sfu was likely enhanced due to the flare activity, so the morning reading of 184sfu has been substituted for the daily value. Other activity included minor C-class flares from Region 9864 (N19E43). No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9866 is a likely source of additional, isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The moderate enhancement of >2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit during the past two days appeared to wane somewhat today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled. A slight chance for isolated active periods may exist for day three of the forecast period, due to possible shock passage effects from today's M2 long -duration flare event.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 10 Mar till 12 Mar
M-klass35%35%40%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       09 Mar 184
  Prognoserat   10 Mar-12 Mar  185/190/195
  90 Day Mean        09 Mar 218
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 08 Mar  004/004
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 09 Mar  006/006
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  005/006-005/006-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 10 Mar till 12 Mar
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt10%10%15%
Små stormförhållanden01%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%20%
Små stormförhållanden01%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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