Viewing archive of lördag, 6 april 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Apr 06 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 096 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 06 Apr 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9893 (N19E40)
produced the largest flare during the period, a C9/1F flare
occurring at 06/0619 UTC. This region has become slightly more
complex during the period and has also seen an increase in penumbral
coverage. Many minor C-class flares from the more ominous regions
were seen on the disk today as well. One worthy of mention, a C2/Sf
flare that materialized from an area void of spots (S17E48) also
produced a weak Type II sweep with an estimated shock velocity of
296 km/s. LASCO imagery doesn't depict any geoeffective potential
to this event. New Regions 9897 (S01W02), 9898 (S19E66), and 9899
(N18E72) were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. A chance for an isolated major flare exists
due to the magnetic complexity seen in several regions.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet on day one of the forecast. A slight chance of
isolated active conditions exist for days two and three. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux dropped below event levels at
05/2140 UTC (max flux 2140 pfu's at 05/1725 UTC) , although levels
remain elevated at the time of this writing.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 07 Apr till 09 Apr
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 06 Apr 206 Prognoserat 07 Apr-09 Apr 205/200/190 90 Day Mean 06 Apr 203
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 05 Apr 003/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 06 Apr 004/006 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 010/010-012/012-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 07 Apr till 09 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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