Viewing archive of torsdag, 7 mars 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Mar 07 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 066 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 Mar 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Several minor
C-class flares with no optical correlation occurred during the
period. The largest appears to be a C6 that was in progress at the
time of this writing. Region 9851 (S02W24) has shown penumbral
growth in the lead complex of the spot group today. Region 9845
(N17W86) has almost completely exited the west limb. The rest of
the spotted groups have been unchanged or in varying degrees of weak
decay. New Region 9864 (N18E69) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. An
isolated minor storm condition was observed at Fredericksburg at
06/2100 UTC, believed to be a result of a large, transequatorial
coronal hole during it's waning stage. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit has been elevated throughout
the period following the passage of the high speed stream.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast
period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 Mar till 10 Mar
| M-klass | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 07 Mar 180 Prognoserat 08 Mar-10 Mar 180/175/175 90 Day Mean 07 Mar 219
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 06 Mar 016/015 Förväntat Afr/Ap 07 Mar 009/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 008/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 Mar till 10 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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