Viewing archive of onsdag, 6 mars 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Mar 06 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 065 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 06 Mar 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. A C1 flare
(optically uncorrelated) was the extent of the observed flare
activity for the period. Several minor discrete radio bursts and
multiple Type III radio sweeps comprised most of the rest of the
day's activity. At the beginning of the period, a 14 degree
disappearing filament was seen near S43W25 which made up the rest of
the activity for today. Region 9845 (N17W74) remains quiescent and
showed continued gradual decay, although this region continues to
show moderate complexity. New Regions 9862 (N06W58), and 9863
(N18W37) were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 9845 continues to exhibit a slight possibility
of producing an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. High
speed stream effects of a large, transequatorial, coronal hole
continues.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to active levels through most of day one
due to continued coronal hole effects. The remainder of the
forecast period should see a return to quiet to unsettled
conditions.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 07 Mar till 09 Mar
| M-klass | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 06 Mar 178 Prognoserat 07 Mar-09 Mar 185/185/190 90 Day Mean 06 Mar 219
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 05 Mar 010/015 Förväntat Afr/Ap 06 Mar 014/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 012/015-012/012-008/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 07 Mar till 09 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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