Viewing archive of torsdag, 14 februari 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Feb 14 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 045 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 Feb 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's flare activity
consisted of a few C-class flares. The largest was a C4/1f at 0142
UTC. Most of today's flare activity was produced by 9825 (N13E01).
9825 is currently the largest, most complex region on the disk and
continued to grow slowly. Region 9821 (S12W66) continues to decay.
Two new regions rotated into view: 9829 (S07E74), a small C-type
group, and 9830 (S22E73), a small H-type group. Numerous CMEs were
observed in LASCO imagery today. Of these, a CME that was first seen
in C2 at 14/0254 UTC was associated with disk activity in EIT in the
southwest quadrant, and appears to have at least some earthward
component.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event from
9825. There is a very slight chance for a major flare from 9825.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase
to mostly unsettled is possible on day two due to coronal hole
effects. Day three is expected to be unsettled to slightly active
due to possible geoeffectiveness from today's CME that originated
from the southwest part of the solar disk.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 Feb till 17 Feb
| M-klass | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 14 Feb 196 Prognoserat 15 Feb-17 Feb 195/190/190 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 13 Feb 011/010 Förväntat Afr/Ap 14 Feb 005/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 007/008-010/012-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 Feb till 17 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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