Viewing archive of fredag, 18 januari 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jan 18 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 018 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 Jan 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Isolated C-class
X-ray flares occurred. There were two sunspot groups of note: Region
9782 (N06W22) and Region 9786 (S26W19). Region 9782 underwent minor
changes with a small decrease in area, but continued to show a mix
of polarities within its southern leader spots. Region 9786 appeared
to be in a gradual growth phase, but was simply structured. The
remaining regions were unremarkable. New Region 9788 (N16E53) was
numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
predominately low. However, there will be a small chance for an
isolated low-level M-class flare from Region 9782.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased
to normal to moderate levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. However, there will
be a chance for brief active levels on 20 - 21 January due to
coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is
expected to remain at normal to moderate levels.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 Jan till 21 Jan
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 18 Jan 211 Prognoserat 19 Jan-21 Jan 215/220/225 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 17 Jan 006/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 18 Jan 007/006 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 008/008-012/010-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 Jan till 21 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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