Viewing archive of lördag, 22 december 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Dec 22 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 356 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 22 Dec 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9749 (S08E43)
produced a C3/Sf flare at 21/2152 UTC. Three additional optically
uncorrelated C-class flares were observed during the period. Region
9742 (N10W16) continues to be the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the disk. This region was stable and appears to
have slightly decreased in areal coverage during the period. A
15-degree filament near S19E26 disappeared sometime between 22/0108
UTC and 22/0225 UTC. A second, smaller, filament disappeared near
N15E49 between 22/1636 UTC and 22/1653 UTC. New Regions 9752
(S14W19) and 9753 (S20E67) were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9742 remains capable of producing
M-class flares and there is a chance for an isolated major flare
from this region.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. High latitudes may
experience isolated active conditions on days two and three of the
period as a favorably positioned coronal hole is expected to become
geoeffective.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 23 Dec till 25 Dec
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 22 Dec 243 Prognoserat 23 Dec-25 Dec 245/250/250 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 218
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 21 Dec 009/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 22 Dec 010/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 008/010-010/012-005/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 23 Dec till 25 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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