Viewing archive of söndag, 25 november 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Nov 25 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 329 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 Nov 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9704 (S18W74) produced
an impulsive X1 flare at 25/0951 UTC (optically correlated using SXI
imagery). SOHO/LASCO imagery did not reveal a CME signature with
this major flare, negating geoeffective potential. Even with the
loss of the delta magnetic classification, this region remains the
principle source of flare activity and produced numerous C-class
flares during the period. Region 9715 (N06E58) has shown some
growth in complexity over the period and produced several minor
optical flares. New Region 9716 (S04E73) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9704 remains capable of producing an
isolated major flare before it transits the west limb.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated period of active (24/2100-25/0000 UTC). The greater than
10 MeV proton event and associated polar cap absorption remained in
progress at the end of the period (proton flux peaked to 18900 pfu
at 24/0555 UTC). A moderate (10.2 percent based on the Thule
neutron monitor) Forbush decrease began shortly after the beginning
of forecast period and peaked near 25/0040 UTC, ended near 25/0300
UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through days one and
two, becoming quiet to active on day three with the recurrence of a
geoeffective coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to end late on the 26th, as it continues to slowly
decrease.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 Nov till 28 Nov
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 95% | 50% | 10% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 25 Nov 170 Prognoserat 26 Nov-28 Nov 170/170/175 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 218
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 24 Nov 076/108 Förväntat Afr/Ap 25 Nov 008/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 008/008-010/010-012/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 Nov till 28 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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