Viewing archive of måndag, 26 november 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Nov 26 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 330 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 26 Nov 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9715 (N06E44) was the lone source for optically correlated flare activity occurring from a numbered region during the period. Several C-class flares were noted from this region with the largest being a C4/Sf flare seen at 26/1354 UTC. Significant growth in magnetic complexity (beta-gamma) and penumbral areal coverage have made this region the most notable region currently on the visible disk. Region 9704 (S20W88) was quiet today as it transits the west limb. A C9 x-ray flare occurred on the east limb with an associated Type II radio sweep (251 km/s) at 25/2317 UTC. At S20, the source of this flare is believed to be old Region 9787 which produced M-class activity during it's last rotation. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9715 now appears capable of producing M-class activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/2320 UTC, remained in progress (flux at 14 pfu) at the time of bulletin issue (peak flux was 18900 pfu at 24/0555 UTC). The polar cap absorption event ended at 26/0730 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one of the forecast. Active periods are possible on days two and three due to a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early on the 27th, as the proton integral flux continues to slowly decrease.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 27 Nov till 29 Nov
M-klass40%40%50%
X-klass10%10%05%
Proton90%50%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       26 Nov 175
  Prognoserat   27 Nov-29 Nov  175/180/185
  90 Day Mean        26 Nov 217
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 25 Nov  006/008
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 26 Nov  004/006
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  010/010-012/012-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 27 Nov till 29 Nov
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%30%20%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%05%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%40%30%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%10%05%

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