Viewing archive of onsdag, 13 februari 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Feb 13 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 044 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 Feb 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z Solar activity has been low. There were several C-class
events during the past 24 hours; most of these were from Region 9825
(N14E16). The largest event was a C7/1n from 9825 at 0712 UTC.
Region 9825 has grown steadily and is now the largest group on the
disk. Region 9821 (S13W53) is now the second largest region but is
decaying and did not produce any flare activity. A CME was observed
in C2 from the southeast limb, beginning at 2030 UTC: the CME does
not appear to be earthward directed.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class
event, with Region 9825 being the main threat. There is a very
slight chance for a major flare or a proton producing flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electron fluxes were at moderate levels for a significant
fraction of the day.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on the third day.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 Feb till 16 Feb
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 Feb 204 Prognoserat 14 Feb-16 Feb 210/210/205 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 12 Feb 005/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 13 Feb 012/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 010/010-010/008-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 Feb till 16 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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